PS Vita (NGP) vs. 3DS vs. iPhone 4/5, Round Two

Now that Sony has announced the most important piece of missing information about their new console (The price, not the name), and we have some sales history of the 3DS to examine, it's time to revisit the head-to-head comparison of the three major contenders for the handheld gaming crown. I first examined these three platforms in this post, after Sony first announced their new handheld gaming device.

Let's look at the hardware specs first. The 3DS has a 3.5" 400 x 240 screen on top (that's 3D mode resolution; it would be 800 x 240 in 2D) and the second screen below is 320 x 240. The PS Vita has a single 5" screen with a resolution of 960 x 544. The iPhone 4 (and likely the iPhone 5) has a 3.5" screen with a resolution of 960 x 640. The PS Vita has the largest screen that's close to the highest resolution screen, which is the iPhone screen. The 3DS has the glasses-free 3D effect which none of the other devices have, but for about 15% to 25% of the customers the 3D effect either doesn't work or produces nausea and headaches, or is just unpleasant.

What about graphics performance? Clearly the PS Vita, with its quad-core ARM A9 CPU and Power VR graphics co-processor has the others beat. The iPhone 4 has a single-core ARM-based A8 CPU, but the iPhone 5 is likely to have the same A9-based dual core CPU that the iPad 2 has. It still won't be up to the performance of the PS Vita, but it won't exactly be a sluggard, either. The 3DS has some custom silicon in there, so it's hard to say for sure how it compares. According to this article, the 3DS can put out about 30 million triangles per second, about the same as an iPhone 3GS and slightly less than a PSP. Which means it's way, way behind a PS Vita or an iPhone 5, by about an order of magnitude I'd guess. The fillrate in pixels per second is about 1.6 billion for the 3DS, which is definitely better than the PSP at 664 million or the iPhone 3GS at 500 million... but certainly way behind the PS Vita or the iPhone 5 (the iPhone 4 has a raw fillrate of at least 700 million pixels).

Finally, there's the price point comparison: The 3DS is $249, the iPhone 4 is hard to compare since it's under a contract, but you can get an 8 GB iPod Touch for $229, and the PS Vita will be $249.

I have to say that the 3DS doesn't stack up well at its current price point. Certainly its sales have been weaker than Nintendo projected, and it's currently limping along at a fairly low level. Nintendo is hoping that some strong software titles and more marketing spending will bring up its sales, but I think Nintendo will have to cut the price to $199 before Sony launches the PS Vita, or shortly thereafter.

Nintendo's big edge with the 3DS was to have been the 3D effect, but that's gotten a mixed reception from customers. Even Nintendo has been busy de-emphasizing its importance. Without that, thought, the 3DS doesn't have any advantages over the competition aside from exclusive software titles. Which is no small advantage, as Link and Mario and Starfox and others are a huge draw. It may not be enough for Nintendo to overcome the hardware and business model advantages of iPhones, the PS Vita, and of course Android smartphones and tablets. There are far more mobile gaming options than ever before, and smartphones and tablets have a variety of other features that make them extremely attractive.

Sony seems to be working towards having a variety of inexpensive downloads for the PS Vita, as well as movies, and perhaps will be more open to other functionality. Nintendo has said they will have 3D movies available, but 3D movies aren't doing all that well at the box office either. The 3D fad may have run its course... which would be a bad thing for Nintendo since it planned for 3D to be the major selling point of the 3DS (hence the name!).

The iPhone (and Android smartphones) have suffered from a lack of top-quality games, but titles like Infinity Blade have shown that it's possible to do some very impressive games for the hardware. (And with Epic Games announcing they've brought in more than $10 million dollars from Infinity Blade, it's clear you can make real money from these games, too.) I expect we'll see more high-quality games for smartphones in the coming years.

Verdict: On the raw hardware level, the PS Vita has the horsepower, the biggest screen and the best array of features. The iPhone/iPod Touch has an impressive variety of apps, many of them free, and quite decent hardware performance even though it lacks dedicated gaming controls. The 3DS is bringing up the rear right now, but with better software and a lower price point it could be quite competitive. Nintendo may well release a sleeker, less expensive version next year, and then it will be a different story.

Wii U vs. Xbox 360 vs. PS3: About Even

Wii U. Better than Wii Wii, I guess.

Nintendo has announced the final name of Project Cafe: Wii U. Just when you thought the Wii name was the strangest console name ever... Wii U. Nintendo introduced the console with some nice accolades from industry executives, some good-looking graphics videos, and plenty of laudatory exposition. Actual details about the hardware were rather scarce. Here's what we know:

• 1080P HD graphics output
• Controller with 6.2 inch screen, dual analog controls, touchscreen, camera, microphone
• Output can be from the Wii U to a TV or to the controller
• Backwards compatible with all current Wii controllers and games
• Games on proprietary optical discs
• 4 USB slots
• Release in 2012

What's missing? Well, you'll notice that what they didn't say is perhaps more important than what they did say. No mention of a hard drive in the console... so you can count the rumors that said there wouldn't be one as confirmed. If they were putting one in there they would have mentioned it. What they will have is some internal flash memory, size unspecified, and the ability to connect an external USB hard drive.

Graphics resolution? No specs at all, just some nice looking video. Which means that the Wii U graphics power will probably be around the level of the Xbox 360 or PS3, perhaps somewhat below. If the graphics output was substantially better in any way (resolution, polygons, texture mapping) you can bet Nintendo would have touted it. They didn't, so I think it's a safe assumption that the Wii U will not be setting any graphics records for home consoles.

The Wii U controller.

Price? No, no mention of that. Again, I think if they were planning to have a substantial price advantage over the Xbox 360 or the PS3 they would have mentioned it. Although, since they are more than six months away from the release date, keeping their options open is a good idea. Microsoft may well decide to drop the Xbox 360 price for the holidays, with the spectre of the Wii U looming for 2012. I'd guess that Nintendo will come in at least at $299, and quite possibly higher.

There was also no mention of digital distribution, any differences in how Nintendo deals with developers, or any of the new things that have been upending the game market like social games, free-to-play, or other new business models. Seems like Nintendo is counting on business as usual; if they were gonna do something different you'd have heard them talking about it.

It's not clear, either, exactly when the Wii U will appear. I'd guess earlier in 2012 rather than later, since this announcement will probably slow Wii sales even further (especially since the Wii U is fully backward compatible).

How does the Wii U stack up against its competition? Lack of a hard drive really cripples its ability to compete with downloadable content, or even streaming content that needs substantial caching. Assuming graphics output to be roughly the same, and the pricing to be about the same or higher, the real differentiation is the controller with the screen. Though Sony may have that covered with the PS Vita, and Microsoft has already shown a connection with Windows Phone 7 devices. The installed base of the Xbox and the PS3 are huge advantages, as are their software libraries. Motion control is no longer a unique feature for Nintendo. I think all the Wii U does is level the playing field; I think Nintendo is going to have to show some unique and compelling software titles for the Wii U to make inroads against the Xbox 360 and the PS3.

Sony Announces PlayStation Vita, Amazing Price

3DS, this machine's coming to get you.

Sony has announced the name for the NGP (Next Generation Portable): PlayStation Vita (pronounced VEE-ta). Yeah, I know, it sounds like something from Jersey Shore. Well, it's better than the Wii. Regardless of what you think of the name, though, the astonishing thing is that Sony announced the price: $249 for the Wi-Fi version, $299 for the 3G/Wi-Fi version.

Sony has thrown down the gauntlet at Nintendo's feet, pricing the PS Vita exactly the same as the current Nintendo 3DS. In a head-to-head hardware matchup, the 3DS pales in comparison to the gorgeous HD 5" OLED touchscreen, rear touch panel, dual analog controls, dual cameras, and amazing raw horsepower that puts it close to the PS3 in performance.

Given that the 3DS has not exactly set the world on fire with its sales or its features or its software so far, this is shaping up to be a real battle for the holiday season when the PS Vita finally ships. Nintendo has about six months to ship some really strong titles, encourage third-party developers to do the same, get some good marketing programs in place... and maybe reduce the price to $199 before the holidays. So far, the software for the 3DS has not been impressive, and the hardware is clunky, and customers don't seem to find the 3D effect more than a gimmick (and one that about 25% of the audience either can't stand or can't notice). I think the 3DS will have to be $50 cheaper than the PS Vita if it wants to be at all competitive. A better version of the hardware would be nice, one that was smaller and lighter with better battery life.

Sony's not ignoring the threat from smartphones, either, by making the PS Vita compatible with the PlayStation Suite for Android. Old PSP titles that were downloadable can play on the PS Vita, too. This all may not be enough to really deal with the threat of smartphones, but Sony seems to understand the nature of the problem, which is more than I can say for Nintendo.

It's shaping up to be an interesting Christmas this year.

How To Analyze E3 2011

I believe this refers to the level of hype.

The circus is in town this Tuesday, and it's going to be loud. That's always been the case with E3; at the beginning of the show it's not so bad, but gradually each display with speakers on it gets turned up louder in order to be heard better over the crowd noise and the other booths... and once one is turned up, nearby ones have to be turned up also... and before you can hack a Sony website, the expo hall is pulsating with the maximum volume output from hundreds of speakers. It's an almost physical assault on your body when you step in there.

Equally powerful is the onslaught of marketing hype. Claims are inflated, then pumped up a little more... then untethered from reality to float freely into the blogosphere. E3 is a cacophony of thousands of voices all shouting to be heard, waving shiny objects to catch your attention, and claiming to be the most important thing at the show. (Just check out this list of press conferences for the first day... imagine attending a dozen of those.)

How do you deal with this wave of information? How can you derive any useful data from it? First you have to decide what you're looking for, since there's many things you can learn at E3. Are you trying to find out what will be the hit games for a particular platform for 2011? That narrows your search considerably, and you can just compare lists of Top Games of E3 2011 from a batch of game enthusiast websites to find the names that recur on each list. Information found, and you didn't even have to sit through a press conference to get it.

If you're looking for something more subtle, such as industry trends for the next year, or whether Nintendo's new console will be a hit, answers will be harder to find. Determining industry trends may be easier from a distance than when you're actually at the show. I plan on sifting through the reporting on E3 to look for key pieces of information. For instance, what are the three most important announcements from the biggest companies? Finding out what they consider to be most important gives you a clue to where they will be putting their marketing emphasis in the year ahead... and you think about whether that is really something important that can change the industry, or is just another AAA game that might sell well but won't affect the direction of the industry.

Look for major new business initiatives, new investments, new hardware, new business models, acquisitions and mergers, major business deals. Ask yourself "If this things goes as well as it possibly can, how would it affect other companies?" If the answer is "Not much" then it's not an important industry event no matter what happens. Ignore it and move on.

Once you skip past the 47,000 new product introductions and just look at the list I mentioned in the last paragraph, you'll find it's going to be much easier to figure out what's going to be happening in the industry over the next year.

Oh, and in general you can expect companies to be cheery and upbeat about their prospects for the next year, regardless of whether or not they actually expect that to happen. They'll also probably be positive about the industry as a whole. Third-party publishers will likely say they are excited by new hardware (like Nintendo's Project Cafe or Sony's NGP) and think it's going to be a hot seller. Why? Whether or not they really do, they hope that saying those things will help make the hardware sell well... because if it does, any products they create for it will do better. So they're just trying to help themselves out.

Ignore all the happy talk. Look back at last year and see how positive everyone was about Nintendo's 3DS. It was awesome, killer new technology that would really boost the business for everyone. Uh huh. The reality is much more anemic. The 3DS has had a good first week and lackluster sales since then. We can hope Nintendo will boost its sales with some powerful new titles and heavy marketing spending, but that's by no means certain. Me, I think its problems go beyond poor launch titles and not enough marketing; I think 3D is a gimmick that people aren't really that interested in, and the hardware is clunky and expensive, and their business model is antiquated. All those things can be fixed... but I'm waiting to see if Nintendo begins to address them at E3.

So discount what industry types with a vested interest say about new hardware. Look for hard numbers when execs speak about their products. If they really are happy they won't be afraid to quote actual sales figures. If they say things like "We're thrilled with the sales!" rather than a specific number of units, they really aren't thrilled. You shouldn't be either, in that case.

Best advice: Follow the money. And follow the sales numbers. Don't follow the shiny objects.

More E-Book Publishing Options

The e-book field continues to evolve, as publishers and authors figure out that e-books can be more than just a regular book output as a PDF instead of a printed, bound version. A Spanish company, 24symbols, as recently gone into beta on a book publishing service that offers both ad-supported and subscription options. They are looking at reading e-books as a web activity, perhaps one that you do along with friends. They're exploring a variety of models, including the freemium model. It's a way to offer content in a variety of payment plans, offering a way to find more readers for content.

This kind of experimentation is important as we all are finding out what works and what doesn't. I'm sure the nature of e-books will continue to evolve rapidly. Which means that something that's the right course of action today may not be correct tomorrow. Stay flexible, and stay in touch with what's happening out there. Your profits may depend on it.

Android Market Share Jumps, Blackberry Sinks

Nielsen's numbers look very similar to Comscore's.

April's Comscore report on US smartphone market share, which echoes the Nielsen numbers, continues the trend we've seen over the past year: Android market share grows (up over 5% since January, to 36.4%), Apple's share grows a little bit (up 1.3% to 26%), and RIM's Blackberry market share heads for the depths (dropping 4.7% to 25.7%). Congrats to RIM, they now have a solid hold on third place and can look forward to fourth place if Microsoft succeeds in its alliance with Nokia to boost Windows Phone 7 into competition. Nokia had better get busy, though. Apple and Googl are rapidly moving targets, improving both their hardware and their software regularly. Nokia and Microsoft have to really come from behind.

At this point I'm not sure what features Nokia could really put into their phones that would significantly differentiate them from their Android and iOS competition. Nokia knows how to build sleek phones with good screens, but so do a lot of companies now. Even Nokia's volume advantage is not in play here...Apple's got huge numbers, and so do a number of Android phones, and it will be a while before Nokia could even match those volumes, let alone pass them significantly. So I don't see any price advantage on the manufacturing side.

Which leaves the software side for the advantage. Microsoft has an interesting interface, but they are woefully behind in lining up developers, much less a library of killer apps. Apple has a long lead in cutting deals with major media companies for content. What's Microsoft got aside from Xbox Live? Not much, honestly.. oh yeah, they have Skype now. But they wouldn't try to make that proprietary... it would kill most of the value of Skype. Still, Microsoft is trying hard, and they do have a lot of money to throw at the problem. They may come up with some competitive apps.

Meanwhile, Android continues to grow... but developers continue to struggle to make money on the platform. Apple continues to grow its market share slowly, but they seem to be a much better place to make money for developers. I suspect that new announcements for Apple at their developer's conference this week may help their growth numbers. Rumors continue to swirl about what to expect in the next iPhone, whether it may be a less major update than the last one. The more important thing to Apple's overall growth in iPhone numbers is going to be pricing. I'm sure they'll introduce a new iPhone at the high end of the price scale sometime this year. Will they then move the iPhone 4 down to a lower price? Probably, and that could mean a substantial boost in numbers. If Apple does indeed introduce a new iPhone designed to be smaller, lighter, and less expensive, that could also be a big boost.

EA Launches New Digital Distribution Service: Origin

Electronic Arts has been making serious moves into digital distribution, and is now bringing in more than 25% of its revenue digitally. They have been moving into social games and mobile games in a serious fashion, and now they're making a solid move into digital distribution with a new service they call "Origin." (Old-timers should not confuse this with Origin Systems.) The service will have 150 titles to start with, and will be the exclusive digital distributor for their new MMO Star Wars: The Old Republic. Obviously EA figures this will be a must-have title that will help drive business to their new digital distributor.

EA sees themselves as becoming a "software platform" and becoming a central hub for gamers. Apparently they feel they can accomplish this without pissing off other distributors or retailers, which will certainly be a neat trick if they can pull it off. We're seeing Activision trying to sell a premium service to Call of Duty fans, and I guess this is EA's idea of how to appeal to their fan base with more service offerings.

It does seem like a useful strategy for these companies to expand their digital offerings and try to connect gamers more strongly to their house brands. The success of these efforts depends to a large degree on how well they are executed. Certainly gamers are social animals, and like buying things online... but that's not the same as having them line up for these new offerings. Will EA still make its games available through Steam and other places? I'd assume so. Will their Origin service have exclusive offerings of games, or perhaps some DLC? Probably... if it doesn't have something gamers can't get somewhere else, why would they go there?

The real thing to watch will be the discounting. Will EA be able to maintain their full retail price for games as downloads? If they don't, retailers would certainly be unhappy. We are going to see just how well EA can segment off its distribution channels. They'll have some tricky maneuvering to do.