PS Vita (NGP) vs. 3DS vs. iPhone 4/5, Round Two

Now that Sony has announced the most important piece of missing information about their new console (The price, not the name), and we have some sales history of the 3DS to examine, it's time to revisit the head-to-head comparison of the three major contenders for the handheld gaming crown. I first examined these three platforms in this post, after Sony first announced their new handheld gaming device.

Let's look at the hardware specs first. The 3DS has a 3.5" 400 x 240 screen on top (that's 3D mode resolution; it would be 800 x 240 in 2D) and the second screen below is 320 x 240. The PS Vita has a single 5" screen with a resolution of 960 x 544. The iPhone 4 (and likely the iPhone 5) has a 3.5" screen with a resolution of 960 x 640. The PS Vita has the largest screen that's close to the highest resolution screen, which is the iPhone screen. The 3DS has the glasses-free 3D effect which none of the other devices have, but for about 15% to 25% of the customers the 3D effect either doesn't work or produces nausea and headaches, or is just unpleasant.

What about graphics performance? Clearly the PS Vita, with its quad-core ARM A9 CPU and Power VR graphics co-processor has the others beat. The iPhone 4 has a single-core ARM-based A8 CPU, but the iPhone 5 is likely to have the same A9-based dual core CPU that the iPad 2 has. It still won't be up to the performance of the PS Vita, but it won't exactly be a sluggard, either. The 3DS has some custom silicon in there, so it's hard to say for sure how it compares. According to this article, the 3DS can put out about 30 million triangles per second, about the same as an iPhone 3GS and slightly less than a PSP. Which means it's way, way behind a PS Vita or an iPhone 5, by about an order of magnitude I'd guess. The fillrate in pixels per second is about 1.6 billion for the 3DS, which is definitely better than the PSP at 664 million or the iPhone 3GS at 500 million... but certainly way behind the PS Vita or the iPhone 5 (the iPhone 4 has a raw fillrate of at least 700 million pixels).

Finally, there's the price point comparison: The 3DS is $249, the iPhone 4 is hard to compare since it's under a contract, but you can get an 8 GB iPod Touch for $229, and the PS Vita will be $249.

I have to say that the 3DS doesn't stack up well at its current price point. Certainly its sales have been weaker than Nintendo projected, and it's currently limping along at a fairly low level. Nintendo is hoping that some strong software titles and more marketing spending will bring up its sales, but I think Nintendo will have to cut the price to $199 before Sony launches the PS Vita, or shortly thereafter.

Nintendo's big edge with the 3DS was to have been the 3D effect, but that's gotten a mixed reception from customers. Even Nintendo has been busy de-emphasizing its importance. Without that, thought, the 3DS doesn't have any advantages over the competition aside from exclusive software titles. Which is no small advantage, as Link and Mario and Starfox and others are a huge draw. It may not be enough for Nintendo to overcome the hardware and business model advantages of iPhones, the PS Vita, and of course Android smartphones and tablets. There are far more mobile gaming options than ever before, and smartphones and tablets have a variety of other features that make them extremely attractive.

Sony seems to be working towards having a variety of inexpensive downloads for the PS Vita, as well as movies, and perhaps will be more open to other functionality. Nintendo has said they will have 3D movies available, but 3D movies aren't doing all that well at the box office either. The 3D fad may have run its course... which would be a bad thing for Nintendo since it planned for 3D to be the major selling point of the 3DS (hence the name!).

The iPhone (and Android smartphones) have suffered from a lack of top-quality games, but titles like Infinity Blade have shown that it's possible to do some very impressive games for the hardware. (And with Epic Games announcing they've brought in more than $10 million dollars from Infinity Blade, it's clear you can make real money from these games, too.) I expect we'll see more high-quality games for smartphones in the coming years.

Verdict: On the raw hardware level, the PS Vita has the horsepower, the biggest screen and the best array of features. The iPhone/iPod Touch has an impressive variety of apps, many of them free, and quite decent hardware performance even though it lacks dedicated gaming controls. The 3DS is bringing up the rear right now, but with better software and a lower price point it could be quite competitive. Nintendo may well release a sleeker, less expensive version next year, and then it will be a different story.

iPhone 5 Vs. iPhone Nano

What the iPhone Nano might look like.

While we've all been speculating about the iPhone 5, it looks like Apple has another idea gestating: a smaller, less expensive iPhone, at least according to the Wall Street Journal, which has been very accurate in the past. This sounds like a deliberate rumor float to counter all the various new Android and Windows Phone 7/Nokia news out there... the Big Dog lets out a low growl to keep its presence known.

Here's how the plans shape up: The iPhone 5 will have a 4" screen, but keep the overall form factor the same, and the new A5 dual core processor with about 4x the graphics power of the current A4/PowerVR combo. They might bump the RAM up, too, and maybe the storage space, but I'm inclined to doubt that because of what they plan for MobileMe: Making the $99 service free, and encouraging people to store stuff there instead of locally on their phone. (Though given how difficult bandwidth can be to find and maintain, I don't know about this idea.)

The iPhone Nano will be about half the size, with an edge-to-edge screen, and a significantly lower price point. The current iPhone 4 will probably get a lower price point, and maybe push the 3GS off into the old products graveyard. I expect the iPhone Nano will probably have similar specs to the iPhone 4.

The main idea here is that Apple needs to get a sexy lower-cost iPhone out there to counter the hordes of less expensive smartphones on the way (as I discussed earlier, the $99 smartphone sans contract will happen this year sometime; you can already get a $149 model).

What does all this mean? It means Apple is serious about not just maintaining its iPhone sales, but growing them even in the face of enhanced competition. The time is certainly right for Apple to move to the lower end. This mirrors their successful strategy with the iPod, which once was a single model... now it covers a range of form factors and prices and capabilities. Expect the iPhone line to grow the same way, especially when you consider it's about 40% of Apple's total sales. They're not going to stop pushing on that any time soon.

Expect Apple to continue selling a lot of iPhones... I expect they will move close to 100 million this year. Whoosh.

For developers, though, it's yet one more form factor to worry about, and something else to test on. And  you'll have to think about continuing to support the A4, as well as the A5 going forward. Here's the opportunity ahead, game developers" Be the first on your block to support the A5 with an awesome A5-only title, and garner enhanced press and some good cross-marketing for other titles.

NGP Vs iPhone 5: How Apple Can Win

Sony's NGP has set a high mark for hardware, with its quad-core processor, 5" OLED touchscreen, dual analog controls, and a full sensor array. It certainly bests the current crop of smartphones, even the latest dual-core Android phones. The NGP is clearly a hard-core gaming machine. But how does it stack up against an iPhone 4? And What about the iPhone 5 rumored to be arriving this summer?

Against the iPhone 4 the NGP has clearly superior processing power. The sensor array is similar, though the NGP wins extra points for having a backside touchscreen. The dual analog controls and buttons of the NGP will bea a familiar and easy interface for gamers, clearly superior to the iPhone's reliance on its multitouch screen. True, some iPhone games have used the screen very cleverly (such as Infinity Blade), but any NGP game could duplicate any iPhone interface tricks. Compared to the current iPhone, the NGP is a far better gaming platform for traditional games. The iPhone's advantage right now lies in its vast library of free or inexpensive games. The NGP will likely never get such a huge array of games, not even if Sony were to make developing and publishing as easy on the NGP as it is on iOS. (Which would be a fine idea, actually, but it may be hard for Sony to go that far from their current business model.)

What about the iPhone 5? How will it compare to the NGP? All we know right now is rumor, but that's enough to give us some interesting comparisons. The iPhone 5 is rumored to use Apple's new A5 chip, which uses a dual core ARM A9 processor and a next-gen PowerVR GPU. This is rumored to have 4 or 5 times the graphics processing ability of the current iPhone, which is a mighty leap. It's still not enough to get it to the quad-core NGP level, though. I would expect the iPhone 5 to have about the same size as the current iPhone, which means the screen can't really be much larger. I'd expect the screen to remain unchanged from the current one. The iPhone 5 will probably have more RAM in its base configurations than the iPhone 4, but that shouldn't make a big difference to most games. I can't see any way the iPhone 5 would have any sort of external gaming control; Apple's designing this to be a generally useful device, not one specific to gaming.

So, the bottom line is that the NGP is well positioned to compete against the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 5 as well. It won't be until an iPhone 6 or 7 that the raw horsepower of the NGP is beaten by a phone.

That doesn't mean Apple can't compete against the NGP; it will do very well, thank you. Apple should try to encourage a few high-profile exclusive gaming titles for the iPhone. Apple has $60 billion in cash in the bank; they can afford to pick up any license or exclusive they want, and it would be a small part of their marketing budget.

Apple will continue to have a far bigger selection of games than the NGP, and it should continue to encourage that and market it heavily. Apple should push its games that don't appear on the NGP, and especially ones that provide a very different gaming experience. The NGP will likely have its initial games targeted at hardcore gamers; Apple should push its alternative gaming types.

Finally, Apple can push its utility as a non-gaming device, which the NGP will likely avoid. If the iPhone 5 could handle browser-based games it would be an amazing feature... but thanks to Flash, that seems unlikely.

Still, I expect that while the NGP will be a core gaming monster, Apple will notice no effect on their sales at all, with a little bit of effort.

PSP2 (Now NGP) Vs. 3DS Vs. Smartphones: Who Wins?

2011 will go down in history as the Final War for domination of handheld gaming. The declarations of war have been made (in the guise of launch events for the gaming press), and the machines of war are heading to the battlefield. Three platforms enter... will only one leave? The situation is more complex than that.

Nintendo plays the role of Rocky Balboa, the scrappy kid who became the world champ a long time ago and has been resting on his laurels far too long. Sure, he's been in training some, had some bouts, made a few minor comebacks with the DSi and the DSi XL. But sales have been dropping... Nintendo just announced their latest numbers, and have once again revised their sales estimates downwards for the fiscal year, as their profits have dropped 74% and DS sales will end the year with about 22 million sold, for an all-time total of about 145 million.

Nintendo's war machine for this battle is the 3DS. It's basically a DS with a faster processor and a 3.5 inch 3D display, with a resolution of 400 x 240 in 3D mode. The trick is that the 3D effect doesn't need glasses, but the battery life of the 3DS is a fraction of the DS; 3-5 hours instead of 12-15. The price is $249, and games will be in the $40 to $50 range. Backwards compatibility with DS games is included. The 3DS ships at the end of March in the US. Nintendo's got Rocky Balboa who's been trying to get back into shape.

Sony has finally opened the kimono to reveal the PSP2, now called (for the time being) the NGP (Next Generation Portable). It's got a 5 inch screen at 960 x 540 resolution, dual analog controls, a back-of-the-unit touchpad for control, an Organic LED (OLED) touchscreen, a gyroscope, accelerometer, compass, GPS, front and rear facing cameras, an ARM Cortex A9 quad-core processor, an SGX543MP GPU (a PowerVR chip), 3G, Bluetooth, WiFi b/g/n, and a new flash memory storage for games. Plus backwards compatibility with PSP games. It will ship around the end of 2011, and the price is as yet undisclosed. But you can bet that it won't be cheap; with that spec list I'd put it around $399 at least, that's if Sony wanted to make money on the device from the hardware sales alone. Sony has Ivan Drago (Dolph Lundgren from Rocky 4), the incredible physical specimen with unreal stats.

A glimpse of Sony's NGP.

The final contender is the iPhone 4, and probably this summer the iPhone 5 (as yet, still just a speculation). The current iPhone 4 has an Arm Cortex A8 processor (Apple's version, the A4 chip) with a PowerVR GPU, a 960 x 640 3.5 inch screen, front and rear cameras, full sensor array, and an App Store stuffed with 300,000 titles. The rumored iPhone 5 will use an ARM Cortex A9 dual core, along with a spiffier PowerVR GPU. Apple's bringing a Mixed Martial Arts expert to this boxing match. Pricing will probably be around the current iPhone 4 pricing, with the iPhone 4 moving down to $99 (subsidized) and the iPhone 5 at $199 or $299 (subsidized).

Really, Nintendo's decided to once again avoid battling on sheer technical specs of resolution, polygons, and processor speeds, and instead try to do something different. This is how they succeeded with the Wii; knowing that Microsoft and Sony would be shooting for the most power in a console, Nintendo opted to be different with the interface, and won handily. The 3DS is a hope that 3D without glasses will be a hit with gamers, much more so than mere polygon counts. It's not an unreasonable hope.

Sony's decided, apparently, that the way to win the handheld market is sheer muscle. Bigger, better, faster, stronger, as well as cooler. Interface? Sure, let's throw in all of the sensors and interface ideas we can, and perhaps something awesome will emerge. Actually, it's not an unreasonable hope; give game developers a lot of different tools and they will surprise you every time.

Apple's competing against phones, not handheld gaming devices, but their iPhone 5 will be a pretty close match to Sony's NGP, at least much closer than the 3DS. If game developers can really start to charge somewhat higher prices for really awesome games, perhaps the return on investment for iPhone game development might look more like handheld game development.

Android phones will continue to march along with a wide variety of hardware specs, but you can bet on increasing processor power and more attention to GPU strength. The best Android phones will likely be pretty competitive with Apple's iPhone offerings.

The interesting part is beyond the hardware specs; it's the software and online offerings. Nintendo is trying to advance a bit, ditching the unbelievably awkward Friend codes and moving to a somewhat easier multiplayer matching. They're touting their eShop as a way to buy less expensive games, but of course they will continue to keep those games completely separate from the full price games sold only at retail stores. Sony's got more interesting things going on, with a development environment designed to bring Playstation games to any Android device. This is a brilliant move, basically trying to coopt the smartphone market by bringing the Playstation games to them. It's not clear what pricing will be like, but the really interesting part is that Sony's trying to make it easy for developers to bring games to any platform.

Meanwhile, Apple's going to make progress in the game market without really trying, as they work to compete in the phone market.

Here's my assessment of the three contenders.

Nintendo'ssmartphones and computers. Nintendo's not really changing its business model, and mostly ignoring the digital possibilities, and that will become more and more of a problem for them in the future. They really have to put some serious effort into their digital offerings if they hope to compete. I think Nintendo will have a good launch, but I think by the summer they will be selling 3DS at a rate lower than the current DS rate unless they lower the price.

Sony's exceeded my expectations on their hardware; they are clearly swinging for the fences. They have obviously spent time thinking about the current market, and their Playstation Suite plan is a good response with lots of possibilities for the future. The major question mark is the price; if it's $399 I think it will merely be a niche product. Even at an aggressive $249, it's going to be a touch sell given its size (see below).

Still, there will be multiple SKUs and perhaps some interesting phone-like capability (built-in Skype would be amazing, especially with reasonably priced 3G connectivity options) which may make it a reasonable choice for your only pocket device. Sony will probably want to see a range of full price games, but they're liely to have many more low-cost game choices than Nintendo.

Apple's certainly going to keep introducing better devices, but they'll never add dedicated gaming controls like an analog joystick. Still, they have established themselves as a huge game market without hardly trying. If they finally activate the Apple TV app store and bring those games to the family room, the whole issue gets even more complex. Apple will be hampered if they fail to develop a market for higher priced games, but at least for the iPad and the iPhone 4 there are some encouraging signs.

For developers, it's just getting more difficult to make choices. You have to decide on allocating your development resources, and that is getting tougher. One thing's for sure, though: Develop your brands and milk the IP you create as much as you reasonably can. Any game you create should be considered as a product line, not just a product. The development is an ongoing process, and so is the marketing, not a one-off event that you fire and forget. Create something that's extensible, refine it, make it popular, then put it on everything that uses electricity.