Sony Announces PlayStation Vita, Amazing Price

3DS, this machine's coming to get you.

Sony has announced the name for the NGP (Next Generation Portable): PlayStation Vita (pronounced VEE-ta). Yeah, I know, it sounds like something from Jersey Shore. Well, it's better than the Wii. Regardless of what you think of the name, though, the astonishing thing is that Sony announced the price: $249 for the Wi-Fi version, $299 for the 3G/Wi-Fi version.

Sony has thrown down the gauntlet at Nintendo's feet, pricing the PS Vita exactly the same as the current Nintendo 3DS. In a head-to-head hardware matchup, the 3DS pales in comparison to the gorgeous HD 5" OLED touchscreen, rear touch panel, dual analog controls, dual cameras, and amazing raw horsepower that puts it close to the PS3 in performance.

Given that the 3DS has not exactly set the world on fire with its sales or its features or its software so far, this is shaping up to be a real battle for the holiday season when the PS Vita finally ships. Nintendo has about six months to ship some really strong titles, encourage third-party developers to do the same, get some good marketing programs in place... and maybe reduce the price to $199 before the holidays. So far, the software for the 3DS has not been impressive, and the hardware is clunky, and customers don't seem to find the 3D effect more than a gimmick (and one that about 25% of the audience either can't stand or can't notice). I think the 3DS will have to be $50 cheaper than the PS Vita if it wants to be at all competitive. A better version of the hardware would be nice, one that was smaller and lighter with better battery life.

Sony's not ignoring the threat from smartphones, either, by making the PS Vita compatible with the PlayStation Suite for Android. Old PSP titles that were downloadable can play on the PS Vita, too. This all may not be enough to really deal with the threat of smartphones, but Sony seems to understand the nature of the problem, which is more than I can say for Nintendo.

It's shaping up to be an interesting Christmas this year.

Game Development Costs Triple for NGP, 3DS

Angry Birds plush toys at an open-air market in Seoul, South Korea.
I don't think these were authorized, but I wasn't able to ask.

One of the key "features" of new consoles, handheld or otherwise, is not readily apparent to consumers, but it's very important to developers. New consoles inevitably result in a rise in development costs. It's a consequence of higher resolution graphics, which require more time spent on art, and of the sheer difficulty in learning to use a new console. Not to mention working with a tool set that's inevitably incomplete and bug-ridden. At the earliest stages there are no third-party tools to switch to; you're reliant on the tools the console manufacturer gives you.

More than that, when the console maker throws in new features like 3D or various sensors or motion control, or even added buttons, it all takes time for developers. They have to spend time experimenting with the new features, learning how they work, and hopefully coming up with useful and fun ways to use the features in a game.

How high are we talking about? Game budgets for the 3DS and the NGP are expected to be over $1 million dollars. That's your price of entry... so you can see why a small developer used to iPhone games might balk at the idea. As a contrast, Angry Birds cost $140,000 to develop, and that was considered a very high budget for a smartphone game. Many smartphone games from small developers are costing thousands of dollars to develop, and even then many don't make back their investment. Which is why independent developers need to tread carefully when deciding on budgets for their games.

And clearly, if you are thinking about bringing your smartphone game to the 3DS or the NGP, you'd better have a lot of resources handy... And a great deal of confidence in how many copies you can sell.

BREAKING: Panasonic's "The Jungle" Clearcut

The handheld that will never be.

Shocking news announced today: Panasonic has cancelled its hugely anticipated handheld MMO gaming device, "The Jungle." Yes, it's hard to believe given the overwhelming worldwide interest in Panasonic's offering, which I detailed in this post. OK, I did call it "The Fiasco", which turns out to be prescient. Amazing... what a stunning prediction. I mean, if you compare the stats of The Jungle to the 3DS and the NGP... wait, Panasonic never did announce any stats, did they? Or a price, or a launch date, or any reason at all to be enthusiastic.

At least it's a great lesson on how not to announce a product. Or develop one. I sure hope someone at Panasonic lost their job over this massive waste of company resources on a project that anyone with even a passing familiarity with the game market could have told them was a bad idea.

Well, Nintendo and Sony can breathe a little easier now that The Jungle isn't a threat.

Sony's Gaming Tablet

This sketch purports to show how Sony's tablet might look, but I don't really get it.

Sony's really stepping up their game, after spending the last few years trying to revamp the corporate structure. We'll get to see just how successful this effort is in the next year or two. Apparently they have decided to cover all their bets in the gaming hardware category. They've got the PS3, so the game console spot is covered. The PSP has really done very well, but more in Japan than in the USA, and it's time for a new handheld gaming device if they expect to get revenue from that market. So the NGP is scheduled for shipment later this year, and it seems like a very powerful handheld gaming device.

Perhaps surprisingly, Sony has said they will also keep the PSP around, too, perhaps to keep the lower-priced end of the market covered. That's really not such a bad idea, if they can keep software development going for it. I'd suggest revitalizing with an additional price reduction, and some new software to help it play music and video. Open up development more, and create a zippy online store for purchasing all sorts of content. If you can make it easy to develop and publish new PSP software, the device will keep selling.

Ah, but this strategy ignores the mobile phones, so what will Sony do about that? The Experia, also known as the Playstation Phone, is Sony Ericsson's entry there: A powerful Android phone with full access to the new Playstation Suite.

So what's left? Why, a dedicated Playstation Tablet... an Android device optimized for playing games. It would come preloaded with some Playstation games and Sony's Qriocity (music, games, and media on demand) service. No word on the specs yet, but you can probably bet on a dual-core processor and some nice graphics on a 9.4 inch screen.

The sketch shows an impression of how it might look... I guess that's the backside, showing a thick curve you can use to hold onto it more easily than a standard tablet. Be nice if that was a flexible cover... but we'll see when Sony gets more formal about the release. Right now, it's just being floated to get some initial response.

I believe tablets are going to be a huge market segment, so there should certainly be room for one optimized for gaming, if the price is right. Ah, the price... the ugly reality that can shatter dreams. Let's hope Sony comes up with a good price point.

Once again, game developers may have yet another platform to develop for...

NGP Vs iPhone 5: How Apple Can Win

Sony's NGP has set a high mark for hardware, with its quad-core processor, 5" OLED touchscreen, dual analog controls, and a full sensor array. It certainly bests the current crop of smartphones, even the latest dual-core Android phones. The NGP is clearly a hard-core gaming machine. But how does it stack up against an iPhone 4? And What about the iPhone 5 rumored to be arriving this summer?

Against the iPhone 4 the NGP has clearly superior processing power. The sensor array is similar, though the NGP wins extra points for having a backside touchscreen. The dual analog controls and buttons of the NGP will bea a familiar and easy interface for gamers, clearly superior to the iPhone's reliance on its multitouch screen. True, some iPhone games have used the screen very cleverly (such as Infinity Blade), but any NGP game could duplicate any iPhone interface tricks. Compared to the current iPhone, the NGP is a far better gaming platform for traditional games. The iPhone's advantage right now lies in its vast library of free or inexpensive games. The NGP will likely never get such a huge array of games, not even if Sony were to make developing and publishing as easy on the NGP as it is on iOS. (Which would be a fine idea, actually, but it may be hard for Sony to go that far from their current business model.)

What about the iPhone 5? How will it compare to the NGP? All we know right now is rumor, but that's enough to give us some interesting comparisons. The iPhone 5 is rumored to use Apple's new A5 chip, which uses a dual core ARM A9 processor and a next-gen PowerVR GPU. This is rumored to have 4 or 5 times the graphics processing ability of the current iPhone, which is a mighty leap. It's still not enough to get it to the quad-core NGP level, though. I would expect the iPhone 5 to have about the same size as the current iPhone, which means the screen can't really be much larger. I'd expect the screen to remain unchanged from the current one. The iPhone 5 will probably have more RAM in its base configurations than the iPhone 4, but that shouldn't make a big difference to most games. I can't see any way the iPhone 5 would have any sort of external gaming control; Apple's designing this to be a generally useful device, not one specific to gaming.

So, the bottom line is that the NGP is well positioned to compete against the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 5 as well. It won't be until an iPhone 6 or 7 that the raw horsepower of the NGP is beaten by a phone.

That doesn't mean Apple can't compete against the NGP; it will do very well, thank you. Apple should try to encourage a few high-profile exclusive gaming titles for the iPhone. Apple has $60 billion in cash in the bank; they can afford to pick up any license or exclusive they want, and it would be a small part of their marketing budget.

Apple will continue to have a far bigger selection of games than the NGP, and it should continue to encourage that and market it heavily. Apple should push its games that don't appear on the NGP, and especially ones that provide a very different gaming experience. The NGP will likely have its initial games targeted at hardcore gamers; Apple should push its alternative gaming types.

Finally, Apple can push its utility as a non-gaming device, which the NGP will likely avoid. If the iPhone 5 could handle browser-based games it would be an amazing feature... but thanks to Flash, that seems unlikely.

Still, I expect that while the NGP will be a core gaming monster, Apple will notice no effect on their sales at all, with a little bit of effort.

NGP Vs. 3DS: How Sony Can Win

Sony has surprised me in several ways with their most recent announcements. First, I didn't expect that they would put so many features or so much power into the NGP (Next Generation Portable, formerly known as the PSP2). The device had been rumored for so long I was afraid it had lost its way. Apparently Sony has been busy seeing just how many things they could stuff into it, and the answer is: A lot. If you gave me a clean sheet of paper and asked for a feature set that would be possible (maybe not reasonable)  for a cutting-edge handheld gaming device, it would pretty much look like the NGP. About the only thing I can think of that they left off is an HDMI output, and I can see why they might not want to do that... it could impact the PS3 if you could plug an NGP into your TV set.

The elephant in the room, though, is the retail price. Sony won't say what the NGP will cost, and the cost could be so high it could strangle sales for a long time. (Remember the PS3 at $699? Ouch.)

I remember the PSP introduction, and it seemed like an amazing piece of hardware... but it was expensive. And the capabilities were never realized for a long time; not enough cool games, awkward attempts at movie sales, no online store for music, movies, etc. The device did quite well in Japan, but never was a big hit in the USA. The DS juggernaut squashed the PSP, and price was an important reason. Another was the DS's array of interesting and useful capabilities, like the dual screen, the touchscreen, the microphone, and so on. Game designers got creative, and there were many interesting games. The PSP never had enough games... although that's been changing, but it was too little, too late.

Enter the second big Sony announcement, which in some ways may be more significant than the NGP: The Playstation Suite. Or as I like to think of it, Sony's Playstation Android Terminator, a heavily armed, unstoppable device designed to seek out and terminate its target: The 3DS.

Wait, what is this Playstation Suite? It's a software development toolkit and specifications for putting PS One games on Android phones. There are many details left to fill in, but it looks like any phone that runs Android 2.3 will be able to handle PS One games (assuming the hardware is beefy enough... which most any new Android phone is). Sony will be selling PS One games on Android phones, raking in revenue for games that they wrote off all costs for many years ago. Better still, they'll be getting people interested in Sony games, perhaps looking for sequels on the PS3 or the NGP. I'm sure Sony is exploring the possibility of making the same thing available on the iPhone or the iPad. And I'm sure the Playstation Suite will be working just fine on Google TV, which (no coincidence) is built into some new Sony TVs.

It's a brilliant strategy, one that Nintendo would do well to emulate... but probably never will. They're apparently going to stick with their business model, regardless of how the world might have changed.

Sony, at least, seems well aware of the changes in the marketplace. Sony's not dismissive of smartphones and the impact they've had on mobile gaming; Sony is actively looking to harness that power to their own ends. Nintendo prefers to pretend that smartphones have absolutely no effect on Nintendo's sales.

Sony's executives clearly know the market and what it will take to succeed. They've put together a handheld gaming device with a quad-core processor, a 5" OLED touchscreen, dual analog joysticks, a backside touch panel and a full array of sensors and networking capability. This puppy makes the 3DS look like a DSi with a 3D screen gimmick tacked on and a bit faster processor, which is about what it is.

What does Sony have to do to win?

Three words: Price, Price, Price. Those are the three most important things. The sheer size of the feature set makes you wonder just how much Sony will sell it for. I could easily see a $499 price point, if not more, if you needed to make a profit on every sale. If they price the NGP there, it's pretty much going to be a lovely thing you'll never see in the wild. At $249 they would stomp the 3DS flat. So how much can Sony afford to lose on each unit? That's an unknown. I'm sure they'll hold off on pricing as long as possible, waiting to see what the component prices will be when they actually go into production... and what the game lineup looks like, and how much they can expect to make from it. If the NGP is over $299 it's going to be tougher to get good sales momentum.

Unleash The Media. No, not the Kraken... though maybe that would help, if it could take on some recalcitrant executives within Sony. This device should do what the PSP should have done: have a full array of movies and music available to play on it. (See iTunes for hints on how to do this.) Sony owns a ton of media; if they can just boot a few executives out on their ass in those divisions, maybe they can get some cooperation. Digital distribution is the future of media. The NGP should have books, music, movies, TV, and the Internet...sell them all and you will make a mint, Sony. Don't worry about cannibalizing your other devices; better you than some other company. Like Apple. Duh.

The NGP Needs Apps. Not just games, Sony. The NGP should be able to handle just about every App in the App Store or the Android Market. Make it so. Open the doors to developers, make it easy to get an App in your store. The NGP needs a full range of capabilities to compete with smartphones. You don't have to build them; just give developers the invite and then stay out of the way to avoid getting trampled.

Embrace new revenue models. In-app purchasing, baby. Freemium. Include some free games with the NGP that have a freemium model, and watch the dollars roll in.

Skype. You don't need a phone carrier. Just a killer Skype implementation. There will be a 3G version of the NGP; with that and Skype you can compete with a smartphone very nicely, thank you very much.

DLC. Sell the add-ons to games, new and old. Extend each game in every way you can, and let the fans pay for what they want. Sure, give out free stuff to chum the waters; you'll get plenty of bites on the pay stuff.

Connect to the PS3. Use the Playstation Network. Make sure every NGP owner wants to become a PS3 owner, if they're not already. Have some games use an NGP as a cool add-on (hidden information).

Sony, you have shown hardware that can take the handheld gaming crown away from Nintendo, and defend it against the smartphones. Now it's all about the execution... so do it right.

PSP2 (Now NGP) Vs. 3DS Vs. Smartphones: Who Wins?

2011 will go down in history as the Final War for domination of handheld gaming. The declarations of war have been made (in the guise of launch events for the gaming press), and the machines of war are heading to the battlefield. Three platforms enter... will only one leave? The situation is more complex than that.

Nintendo plays the role of Rocky Balboa, the scrappy kid who became the world champ a long time ago and has been resting on his laurels far too long. Sure, he's been in training some, had some bouts, made a few minor comebacks with the DSi and the DSi XL. But sales have been dropping... Nintendo just announced their latest numbers, and have once again revised their sales estimates downwards for the fiscal year, as their profits have dropped 74% and DS sales will end the year with about 22 million sold, for an all-time total of about 145 million.

Nintendo's war machine for this battle is the 3DS. It's basically a DS with a faster processor and a 3.5 inch 3D display, with a resolution of 400 x 240 in 3D mode. The trick is that the 3D effect doesn't need glasses, but the battery life of the 3DS is a fraction of the DS; 3-5 hours instead of 12-15. The price is $249, and games will be in the $40 to $50 range. Backwards compatibility with DS games is included. The 3DS ships at the end of March in the US. Nintendo's got Rocky Balboa who's been trying to get back into shape.

Sony has finally opened the kimono to reveal the PSP2, now called (for the time being) the NGP (Next Generation Portable). It's got a 5 inch screen at 960 x 540 resolution, dual analog controls, a back-of-the-unit touchpad for control, an Organic LED (OLED) touchscreen, a gyroscope, accelerometer, compass, GPS, front and rear facing cameras, an ARM Cortex A9 quad-core processor, an SGX543MP GPU (a PowerVR chip), 3G, Bluetooth, WiFi b/g/n, and a new flash memory storage for games. Plus backwards compatibility with PSP games. It will ship around the end of 2011, and the price is as yet undisclosed. But you can bet that it won't be cheap; with that spec list I'd put it around $399 at least, that's if Sony wanted to make money on the device from the hardware sales alone. Sony has Ivan Drago (Dolph Lundgren from Rocky 4), the incredible physical specimen with unreal stats.

A glimpse of Sony's NGP.

The final contender is the iPhone 4, and probably this summer the iPhone 5 (as yet, still just a speculation). The current iPhone 4 has an Arm Cortex A8 processor (Apple's version, the A4 chip) with a PowerVR GPU, a 960 x 640 3.5 inch screen, front and rear cameras, full sensor array, and an App Store stuffed with 300,000 titles. The rumored iPhone 5 will use an ARM Cortex A9 dual core, along with a spiffier PowerVR GPU. Apple's bringing a Mixed Martial Arts expert to this boxing match. Pricing will probably be around the current iPhone 4 pricing, with the iPhone 4 moving down to $99 (subsidized) and the iPhone 5 at $199 or $299 (subsidized).

Really, Nintendo's decided to once again avoid battling on sheer technical specs of resolution, polygons, and processor speeds, and instead try to do something different. This is how they succeeded with the Wii; knowing that Microsoft and Sony would be shooting for the most power in a console, Nintendo opted to be different with the interface, and won handily. The 3DS is a hope that 3D without glasses will be a hit with gamers, much more so than mere polygon counts. It's not an unreasonable hope.

Sony's decided, apparently, that the way to win the handheld market is sheer muscle. Bigger, better, faster, stronger, as well as cooler. Interface? Sure, let's throw in all of the sensors and interface ideas we can, and perhaps something awesome will emerge. Actually, it's not an unreasonable hope; give game developers a lot of different tools and they will surprise you every time.

Apple's competing against phones, not handheld gaming devices, but their iPhone 5 will be a pretty close match to Sony's NGP, at least much closer than the 3DS. If game developers can really start to charge somewhat higher prices for really awesome games, perhaps the return on investment for iPhone game development might look more like handheld game development.

Android phones will continue to march along with a wide variety of hardware specs, but you can bet on increasing processor power and more attention to GPU strength. The best Android phones will likely be pretty competitive with Apple's iPhone offerings.

The interesting part is beyond the hardware specs; it's the software and online offerings. Nintendo is trying to advance a bit, ditching the unbelievably awkward Friend codes and moving to a somewhat easier multiplayer matching. They're touting their eShop as a way to buy less expensive games, but of course they will continue to keep those games completely separate from the full price games sold only at retail stores. Sony's got more interesting things going on, with a development environment designed to bring Playstation games to any Android device. This is a brilliant move, basically trying to coopt the smartphone market by bringing the Playstation games to them. It's not clear what pricing will be like, but the really interesting part is that Sony's trying to make it easy for developers to bring games to any platform.

Meanwhile, Apple's going to make progress in the game market without really trying, as they work to compete in the phone market.

Here's my assessment of the three contenders.

Nintendo'ssmartphones and computers. Nintendo's not really changing its business model, and mostly ignoring the digital possibilities, and that will become more and more of a problem for them in the future. They really have to put some serious effort into their digital offerings if they hope to compete. I think Nintendo will have a good launch, but I think by the summer they will be selling 3DS at a rate lower than the current DS rate unless they lower the price.

Sony's exceeded my expectations on their hardware; they are clearly swinging for the fences. They have obviously spent time thinking about the current market, and their Playstation Suite plan is a good response with lots of possibilities for the future. The major question mark is the price; if it's $399 I think it will merely be a niche product. Even at an aggressive $249, it's going to be a touch sell given its size (see below).

Still, there will be multiple SKUs and perhaps some interesting phone-like capability (built-in Skype would be amazing, especially with reasonably priced 3G connectivity options) which may make it a reasonable choice for your only pocket device. Sony will probably want to see a range of full price games, but they're liely to have many more low-cost game choices than Nintendo.

Apple's certainly going to keep introducing better devices, but they'll never add dedicated gaming controls like an analog joystick. Still, they have established themselves as a huge game market without hardly trying. If they finally activate the Apple TV app store and bring those games to the family room, the whole issue gets even more complex. Apple will be hampered if they fail to develop a market for higher priced games, but at least for the iPad and the iPhone 4 there are some encouraging signs.

For developers, it's just getting more difficult to make choices. You have to decide on allocating your development resources, and that is getting tougher. One thing's for sure, though: Develop your brands and milk the IP you create as much as you reasonably can. Any game you create should be considered as a product line, not just a product. The development is an ongoing process, and so is the marketing, not a one-off event that you fire and forget. Create something that's extensible, refine it, make it popular, then put it on everything that uses electricity.