Diablo III New Class: Auction Seller

Tags: GameTrailers.com, Diablo III - New Features & Design Interview, PC Games, PlayStation 3, Xbox 360

Blizzard made some interesting announcements about their upcoming Diablo III game. No, they didn't give a ship date (they're trying for 2011, but it may not hit until 2012). What they did say had two key facts: 1) You'll need a continuous Internet connection to play the game, and 2) The game will include an auction house where you can buy and sell items in the game for real-world money.

The two items are linked, of course. In order for Blizzard to really make sure that you have the items and acquired them properly, they have to keep the player information on their side. I guess they feel that people are going to buy and sell items anyway, they might as well try and regulate the trade and keep it honest (and make some money, too). Of course, I can think of all sorts of problems and issues that can arise from having virtual items bought and sold... Chinese gold farmers are going to have a new crop to play with.

The requirement for a continuous online connection is many ways more problematic. It can significantly erode your potential market; military members, for instance, are often without Internet connections (that they can use for hours at a time)  for weeks or months. Any little hiccup in your connection and you'll find yourself being kicked out of the game, having to restart. This can be quite annoying.

The auction house will be based on the one in World of Warcraft. You'll be able to deal in in-game credits, or a third-party company will handle real cash transactions. Of course, there will be listing fees and transaction fees. Still, I can see teenagers who play for hours on end picking up some spending money by selling off some of the rare items they find. It'll be interesting to see what sort of price points emerge over time. Are we talking about items that will cost $1? Or $10? Or $100? What will the top end items go for? I'm very curious to know.

I realize this is not the good old Diablo from the last century (has it really been so long? Yes, it was introduced in 1996!). But the game market is changing, and designs and business models have to change too. I suspect there will be plenty of bitching about these features (there's already been a fair amount), but I think the game will be hugely successful anyway. I'm sure there will be problems to work out with the auction house, but I'll be watching closely. I'm sure other developers will be, too. I expect we'll see more of this business model in the future, and not just from Blizzard.

Free-To-Play For Any Game?

Free games coming soon...

When you're looking at different business models for gaming, one of the ones that usually pops up is "ad-supported." Meaning that advertisers would pay to present games to customers, who could then play for free. It's the network television model, where you fast-forward put up with some commercials in order to watch a show.

Now online game marketplace Gamersgate is attempting to bring that model to PC games with a new service, Freegames. A closed beta is opening up later this month, with the service expected to roll out in September. There'll be ads on the site, and ads while you download, and ads before and after you play. Like most of these ads, users will probably quickly learn to ignore them. Well, that's OK if they can still line up advertisers, I guess.

A more useful model would be the sponsored game, where some advertiser sponsors some downloads in return for the recognition and warm feelings a free game will generate. I think this sounds like a more useufl marketing tool.

Gamersgate is expecting to launch with some 200 titles, and is still busily negotiating with publishers over exactly what titles will be available. It's worth keeping an eye on this to see how it goes.

I expect it's going to be more helpful for larger publishers with established titles; advertisers are unlikely to rush in to support your unknown indie title until you've built some audience for it.

PC Gaming 2011 Predictions

Continuing my series of 2001 predictions, I'll look at PC gaming. I define this as a wider field than some might; in this area I include MMOs, boxed retail PC games, downloadable games, Flash games, and F2P games like League of Legends. While the boxed retail PC game has certainly had a difficult few years, people still spend a lot of time playing games on their PCs. The PC game market's biggest threat may be the emergence of the tablet market, as it eats into PC and laptop market share. A tablet may be a better way to game for many people at home; it starts up right away and games are easy to install and acquire. Of course, tablets lack the control possibilities of a PC, so certainly hard-core gamers will still be attached to their cutting-edge hardware. Still, many game makers will want to look closely at the tablet market, if they aren't already.

Anyway, here's some of my predictions for PC Gaming in 2011.

• The Star Wars MMO has a disappointing reception. Oh, they'll sell a bunch right away, but there will be a chorus of complaints about game balance, play style, and the Star Wars universe fidelity. I can predict this without having seen the game because that's the way MMORPGs launch: Game balance is wonky and they prefer to get that right while people are paying for the privilege of testing. Early adopters will complain about it, and complain about what they get to do or can't do, and Star Wars fans will no doubt find things to complain about. The real key is whether the game is compelling enough to attract people despite the flaws, and stick around long enough for the flaws to get fixed. I think it will be, but I don't think this is going to replace WoW. 
• WoW remains subscription priced, but adds more items to be purchased in-game. Speculation will continue about a shift to F2P, but it won't happen this soon. Meanwhile, though, Blizzard will rake in more dough by ramping up the things you can purchase in-game. Plus they'll be making a renewed push to add more gamers and get their subs growing again, which won't have much effect. There are too many other gaming choices competing for players, and that sub price will get to be a heavier burden over time.
• Most new MMOs launch as F2P; the ones that don't struggle. We'll see a number of high-profile entries into the MMO space this year, many of them with subscription pricing.  If these games don't grab and maintain a big audience, as I predict, the subscription model will be pretty much left for dead as far as new games are concerned. Certainly D&D Online's success has inspired other MMO's to follow suit. Game design is an issue, of course, but I think this will be the norm going forward.
• Steam continues to grow and gain market share. This is an easy prediction to make; nothing succeeds like success. They're doing a lot right, and continue to refine what they do. As retail stores contract their shelf space for PC games, Steam will expand to fill the void.
• PC games at retail continue to fade away. The flip side of the last prediction. Have you looked at the retail space devoted to PC games lately? Ugh. Aside form the occasional high-profile title like Call of Duty: The Sequel, there's a wealth of cheesy game shows and assorted low-priced stuff. Not very lucrative for the retailers, I'm sure. The smaller package size has meant less selling goes on in the store; the shelf isn't pulling in customers. GameStop better hope console games stay healthy at retail.
• F2P games become even more popular. A major RPG is announced as F2P. Free-to-play is kicking ass and taking names. I have no inside info on Riot Games and how League of Legends is doing, but I infer from the fact that they're looking to hire dozens of people that it must be doing pretty well. I'm expecting somebody to realize that a Diablo-style RPG based around a F2P business model would make a pile of money. It's what Diablo III should be if they really want to make a bundle.
• Call of Duty does not add a subscription plan. Some analysts have called for this, but it's not gonna happen. At least not right away; it may be part of a future release. But I don't think will see a move to try and migrate a user base over to a pay model when they purchased a game under a different expectation. If Activision really wants to do this, I'd say do it with a new release that you charge less for upfront... maybe even a free release.
• DLC rules. Downloadable content expands even faster and generates a lot of money for companies. On the other hand, users may feel burned if they think they have to pay for DLC in order to compete at a game. Or that someone can pay to get some nifty ability that totally destroys you if you haven't paid. Game design issues will certainly impact marketing and business results here.

It'll be a good year for PC gaming overall, as long as you're not a retail store.