Game Marketing Tips, Analysis, and News


Tuesday, October 19, 2010

New Apple Numbers Smashing Records

Apple has announced its numbers for the quarter ending September, and they are eyepopping. They hit a record $20 billion in revenue, with a profit of $4.3 billion. They sold 14.1 million iPhones... and they could have sold more, only they couldn't build them fast enough. Meanwhile, they also sold 9 million iPods and 4.2 million iPads (oh, yes, and Mac sales hit 3.9 million, a 27% increase).

Some very interesting information came along with this. First, the App Store has hit 300,000 Apps (for comparison purposes, the Android Market is over 90,000 Apps). Second, the number of iOS devices out there has hit 125 million, which is getting pretty darn close to the number of Nintendo DS units out there (132 million as of June). Clearly, given the respective sales rates, Apple will easily pass Nintendo's installed base this next quarter, and never look back no matter how well the 3DS does. Third, the iPad has become one of the fastest-selling gadgets ever, if not the fastest. Some analysts were disappointed Apple didn't sell 5 million, but there were supply constraints.

Oh, and Apple managed to sell over 9 million iPods, too, though that number was down 11% over last year. Probably had to do with the transition to the new iPod based on the iPhone 4. The new Apple TV sold 250,000 units, though of course it didn;t have very much of that quarter to work with. Still, it managed to match the Wii in sales for that month. (Wait until Apple puts the App Store on the Apple TV, then the floodgates will open.) Plus, Apple said they had hit a peak of 300,000 iOS product activations per day, handily beating Google's 200,000 per day. Apple also casually mentioned that Blackberry sold 12.1 million units in that period... the iPhone has now blown past the business leader. The iPad is making strong inroads into the business market, which is surprising to some people. Netbooks, notebooks, and consoles are all beginning to feel the impact of the tablet revolution, which is only just beginning. Note that the iPad-specific apps number over 35,000 and climbing.

What can we expect in the next year? Their numbers will only look better. Assuming Apple can get over their supply problems, they should be able to maintain their iPhone sales at least at that level. The long-rumored Verizon iPhone may actually appear next year, and if it does those numbers will climb higher. We should be seeing at least 5 million iPhones every month, maybe more. The iPad will probably hit close to 2 million per month. The iPod Touch will probably be 2 million per month. The Apple TV may even hit 1 million per month once it gets an App Store.

Consider, this, too: Apple is now the second largest company in the world by market capitalization. Their sales make them bigger than Microsoft, and in the upcoming quarter they'll beat Google and Microsoft, too. Cash in the bank is close to $50 billion... which means they can acquire whatever they feel they need to in order to increase their business. If they want to spend a bit more on marketing in any category, they can overwhelm any competitor.

Those numbers put the entire console business in the dust. No wonder sales are down. Will console makers figure out that their business model needs to change? Will Microsoft somehow get it together with Windows Phone 7 and the Xbox 360 and the Kinect to make a solid family room competitor? Can Sony put together a PSP2 and an online media store connected to the PS3 that will offer a compelling alternative? Will Nintendo finally create a successor to the Wii and reinvent their WiiWare and DSIWare stores? Or is Google the only effective competitor left?

Monday, October 18, 2010

September Sales Sucked

Digital game sales (left) take on physical game sales.
NPD may have tried to obscure the faces of the guilty, but the sales figures for September still showed evidence that publishers were getting killed. (Michael Pachter let loose some specific numbers, even though NPD didn't.) Sales were down once again for the most part, with a few bright spots. Overall, home console unit sales were down 20 percent over last year. Granted, last year September had the PS3 price drop boosting sales tremendously, but this year the PS3 had the Move introduction which was supposed to boost things. Still, Sony's PS3 sales were down 37 percent from last year's September, with 312,000 units sold.

The Wii suffered even more badly, with sales dropping 45% year-over-year down to 254,000 units. No wonder Nintendo is pushing for the 3DS to succeed, and and at higher prices for the software. They badly need something to replace the aging Wii's sales, and the DS line is sagging almost as much. So far we've seen nothing from Nintendo about what they might do to boost sales of the Wii this Christmas. The DS line is going to be hard to pump up, too, given that most fans are looking forward to the 3DS introduction.

Meanwhile, non-physical game sales were booming. NPD's first quarterly report on the subject estimated revenue from sources including used games, game rentals, game subscriptions, digital full game downloads, social network games, downloadable content, and mobile game apps combined to be at $2.6 to $2.9 billion, or roughly 70 to 80 percent of the $3.7 billion spent on new retail sales of hardware, software and accessories in the first six months of the year. Given the relative growth rates of the two areas, I'd expect to see the revenue cross over sometime in the next year or two.

Which leads to why NPD would make these changes (referred to in this post) to scrub away specifics, and to add reporting on other game revenues. I believe NPD was under pressure from publishers to "do something" about the constant stream of bad sales numbers. A bad sales month here and there can be explained away; two years in a row of down sales can't be explained so easily. The monthly news release from NPD saying "sales continue to suck" leads to self-fulfilling prophecy, as publishers cut back on spending, consumers get wind of things not going so well, projects get trimmed or slowed, and sales continue to slow. It's a vicious cycle.

One solution, if the news is bad, is to stop spreading the news. (Easier than fixing systemic problems or changing your business model, certainly.) So I suspect there was pressure from many sources for NPD to stop saying such nasty things... or at least, stop making it so specific by naming titles and publishers and specific hardware device sales. That way, even though the numbers still say "sales sucked last month" an individual publisher can say "Sure, maybe other publishers had a problem, but our title Call of Sequel of Honor II sold really well!"

NPD is obviously aware that game revenue from outside traditional channels is booming, so they want to cover it... but in such a way as to not embarrass those publishers who aren't moving into those areas. So the monthly pig gets a nice glossy lipstick and some eye makeup. Meanwhile, mobile, social, and free-to-play games are bringing home the bacon.

Friday, October 15, 2010

E-book sales up 193% This Year... So Far

Print book sales are down, but e-book sales are up 193% this year... and the year's not over. Those are the numbers from 14 publishers, and don't count the explosion of e-books from authors who have figured out that they don't need publishers much any more.

If you want the full picture, the press release is here; it's filled with interesting numbers. Such as that e-books make up 9% of trade sales for these publishers... doesn't sound like much until you realize it was 3% last year. As tablets and e-readers continue to sell in big numbers (54 million tablets are forecast for 2011, not even counting e-readers), that growth rate should continue.

The interesting question is whether the dedicated e-book reader can survive; some don't think so. I think the tablets will crush them in a few years, the way smartphones crushed PDAs. As the price of tablets drops, there's less room for the dedicated e-reader to survive. Once you have a tablet, the e-reader is an extra device. I expect tablets to drop into the $300 range by the end of 2011 as fierce competition rages. But it really doesn't matter to the publishing industry which device wins.

A little simple math based on the sales numbers above will show you that in a few years the publishing industry will be transformed... book stores, distributors, publishers, and authors too. One thing you can be sure of: Business as usual will not be the order of the day.

Game Budgets To Rise Even More?

Here's an example of doubling down: The lead producer at Guerrilla, developers of Killzone, feels that game budgets need to increase. It's not enough that publishers are having trouble making money, sales continue to decline for traditional videogames, and other types of games are booming with shorter development cycles and lower price points. You think it should be even harder to make money?

OK, there's still room for AAA titles, but the risk is getting greater. Maybe not for a developer that has an iron-clad contract, but at least for the publisher. And even developers can't really depend on those contracts; just ask the (former) head guys at Infinity Ward. I don't think making life more difficult for publishers is really the answer. Not in a market where Sony just announced that Gran Turismo 5 will be delayed once again; that project must be closing in on $100 million in development, and no revenue to show for it yet. The rumor mill is buzzing about this blog post, wherein the anonymous author claims Bioware's MMORPG Star Wars: The Old Republic is already north of $300 million in development costs, and it is not a good game (amid other rants about Mythic and EA).

Here's a list compiled in February of the highest game budgets (estimated) at that time... and it's already outdated.

1. Grand Theft Auto IV - $100 million
2. Gran Turismo 5 - $80 million
3. Shenmue - $70 million
4. Too Human - $60+ million
5. Metal Gear Solid 4 - $60 million
6. Halo 3 - $55 million
7. APB - $50 million
8. L.A. Noire - $50 million
9. Final Fantasy XII - $48 million
10. Killzone 2 - $45 million

Interesting to note that the producer of one of the titles on that list is arguing for bigger budgets, isn't it?

Yeah, there will be big budget titles, but they'd damn well better be hits, and there will be fewer of them. Meanwhile, the industry has to figure out a way to make hits without spending like Jim Cameron on a new film. More like Zynga's scheme, where you spend a few months in development and reap years of amazing profits. Or something like this, where Lord of the Rings Online has doubled its revenue since moving from a subscription model to free-to-play. And paid subscriptions are up, too.

The game industry's key business models are changing rapidly. The days of endless growth in videogame retail sales ended two years ago, and we are unlikely to go back. This era represents the greatest change in the game industry since the NES revitalized the console market in the 1980's. Smart marketers and developers have already realized this and are planning changes in the way they do business. The others are asking for more money.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Steam May Offer Trade-Ins; Publishers Likely To Be Steamed

This one's hot off the intertubes... seems that Michael Pachter, noted industry analyst, is on the record as saying Steam will soon allow gamers to trade in their Steam purchases for other purchases, levying a fee on the transaction of course. Basically, pulling a GameStop with your Steam games. You're tired of it? Trade it in for a new one.

I expect publishers would be more than a little annoyed at this, unless Steam cuts them in for a piece of the action. Which they'd better consider, or else publishers will be loading up their BFGs and looking to put Gabe Newell's head on their wall.

This would, I think, accelerate the move to digital downloads for many people, and give Steam a leg up on other digital distributors (until they duplicate it). GameStop has to be watching this one closely. The interesting, unstated part, is exactly who gets to keep how much of that extra money that Steam will be making from a game... or who gets dinged. If I pay $40 for a Steam game, then a couple of months later I trade it back to get (I'm making this amount up because there's no data yet) $25 in Steam credit... what happens to the money that was paid to the publisher of that game? If I then buy a new game from another publisher with that credit, does that publisher get less cash than they normally would from a Steam purchase?

I can envision different answers to these questions, and some of them would not make publishers happy. Unhappy publishers might stop allowing their games on Steam... so it will be interesting to watch how this unfolds. Stay tuned.

NPD, Data Provider, Announces Data Concealment

Here's some disappointing news: NPD, for many years a major source of numbers about retail sales, has announced that they will no longer provide numbers for the amount of hardware or software sold each month. At least, not unless you're a paying customer.  So it's going to be much harder for those of us unwilling to pay thousands of dollars for this information. Which, generally, means smaller developers, where much of the industry opportunity and growth lies.

I suppose it makes sense for NPD to try and enhance a revenue stream. It is interesting to note that NPD will begin footnoting their information to make it clear that their numbers don't include such things as digital distribution, subscriptions, used game sales, and so on, which constitute an increasing part of the total consumer spending on games. NPD says they will cover the totality of consumer spending in quarterly reports, though. (But I wonder how accurate those reports will be; what are their data sources? Will companies involved with digital distribution be giving NPD their numbers? That "total consumer spending" is spread across a very large number of sellers, and I really question NPD's ability to get any kind of statistically significant data on the entirety of the field.)

NPD does go on to say that they will release some numbers here and there when they talk about a specific title, and of course the publishers who subscribe to NPD are free to state numbers themselves if they so choose.

It does make me wonder if part of the reason for this shift is the negative effect of two years' worth of reporting a slide in sales figures. Did NPD's subscribers put pressure on them to make this move, hoping to staunch the flow of bad sales numbers (under the theory that bad numbers leads to bad press, which leads to more bad numbers)? It can't have been happy-making for publishers and manufacturers to see independent numbers released every month to show how badly they're doing. Especially if NPD's numbers aren't tracking a significant part of their revenue, if publishers are getting more revenue from digital distribution, DLC, subscriptions and other things.

In a way, this underscores the current weakness in the traditional channels, and the continuing slide in the share of total industry revenues the traditional channel represents. Marketers are going to have to make do with fewer hard numbers, or find other ways to get the data that is relevant to them. I for one will be trying to dig up info from other places, and I'll post it here as I get it.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

3DS Too Pricey For Japan, Survey Says

Apparently the 3DS connects to your bellybutton.
A recent survey of 1,000 Japanese consumers by Getnews.jp showed that 80% of them felt the 3DS, priced at 25,000 yen for its release in Japan ($299 at current exchange rates), is too expensive. One would think that this feeling would make them less inclined to buy the unit. But Nintendo isn't buying that idea; Iwata-san says that the device will still be cheaper than purchasing a home console, as they do not require add-ons such as screens.


"You do not need any other hardware devices to be connected in order for you to play with it," he told investors recently.

Nice try, but I'm afraid the judges will have to score that one as a miss. I think it's pretty safe to say that everyone considering buying a videogame console already has a TV set of some sort, so you're comparing apples to horse apples, so to speak.

Nintendo is feeling pretty cocky right now about the 3DS after all the nice things that were said about it at E3. In fact, they used that as justification for charging a premium price for the device. On the heels of that came word that 3DS software will likely be priced higher than current DS software.

The really fascinating thing is how disconnected from reality Nintendo appears; are their marketing folks not reporting properly from the field (gathering intelligence about the market is one of the tasks of marketing)? Let's look at the points of disconnect one by one:

The people at E3 who liked the 3DS were industry folks with a vested interest in seeing it succeed. Yes, there were magazine reviewers there who liked it a lot and their jobs don't depend on it's success directly. But all of the retailers and publishers and their employees have some very good reasons to hope Nintendo's new hardware succeeds. If it does, they stand to make more money. You weren't putting the device in front of consumers in proper focus groups; you were showing it to people who are desperate for something, anything to turn around the industry's sales trends of the last two years. Nintendo, you've confused those guys with the actual market that buys or doesn't buy your product. Your marketing team should be interviewing potential customers, not inhaling their own press releases.

The entire DS line is tanking. Sales are down 20% over last year, which should be a hint that things are not all rosy. Even after you dropped the price by $20, sales didn't recover. Software sales are even worse. Everybody's sales of traditional videogame hardware and software is down, many by double digits, for the second year in a row. The economy worldwide is still wounded, and the consumers in your core demographic of 15- 25 are hurting the worst for jobs. Your response: $299 for the console and higher prices for the software. That sure would be nice for your bottom line, considering Wii sales are also dropping, but only if it actually works. If people don't buy it, you'll have to drop the prices... and price-protect the inventory already out in the channel, and hope like hell that the early high price hasn't permanently branded the console as too expensive.

The competition is tough and getting tougher. Nintendo may like to think that with the PSP only hitting about 25% of DS sales currently that they've won the console war and it's all over, everybody who wants handheld gaming will just buy whatever Nintendo puts in front of them. (Have they not seen The Jungle?) While the current PSP is weak, Sony is likely to introduce the PSP2 soon, and it will certainly offer some additional mojo over the current one. But the real threat is the iDevice (iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad) and Android markets; together they represent over 10 million units sold every month (and growing!) with over 50,000 games with an average price of $3, and tens of thousands of free ones. Downloadable, carry your whole library of games with you at all times, plus you have an incredible array of other functions at your fingertips... and they are cheaper than a 3DS (depending on the unit and how you buy it). With this competitive reality, you're going with a premium price and no new initiatives in downloadable content?

The 3DS may well have a good initial sell-in, and do pretty well for a while. But every month that passes will see the DS market fall further behind the handheld gaming curve as the inexorable math of 10 million units per month beats down on Nintendo's sales numbers (1 million per month, perhaps, after a few months... if they are lucky). A year of that math and it's pretty clear where all the developers will be headed.

 And it's not in Nintendo's direction.