Games Sales Down 23% In August

The chart is small, like the overall sales numbers.

The relentless slide of traditional game sales continued in August, as sales dropped 23% over last year. Last year, $873.8 million; this year, $669.9 million. Software sales were even worse, with a 34% drop to $264.8 million. Hardware fell 12% (to $249.4 million), and accessories dropped only 1% (to $134.7 million).

So far this year, overall sales are down 5% from last year. Of course, NPD was quick to point out that there are a lot of good titles lined up for the 4th quarter: Modern Warfare 3, Battlefield 3, SkyRim, SWTOR, and more. NPD's Anita Frazier expects with all of those blockbusters, sales for the year could end up at flat or maybe even a little positive.

I suppose it's good to be optimistic, but I think a more realistic assessment is that the industry would be lucky to see sales end up at even for last year. With all of the big titles coming out around the same time, there's no way customers will have the money or the desire to get all of them. Take one example: Are people really going to buy both Modern Warfare 3 and Battlefield 3? Not when they're coming out within a couple of weeks of one another. Customers will pick one or the other, and then play it for weeks or months until they feel they've gotten their money's worth. Now, if one of these titles came out six months ago... or six months from now... they'd sell a lot more.

More than that, many of the customers for the biggest titles are the type who buy multiple titles... when they can afford them, and when they're not already busy with a new game. Look, if you've been eagerly awaiting Star Wars: The Old Republic, you're going to spend all your gaming time with that once it comes out, at least for a few weeks. Which means you're not going to be picking up Battlefield 3 for a while, even if you plan to eventually. If you have no time to play it, what's the point? So that purchase gets pushed off a month. This scenario will be repeated in many variations. Too many titles at the same time means lower sales for everybody.

It's going to be a very busy holiday season, but don't expect the overall industry tally to be higher than last year. If it is, that's truly reason for celebration... before the sales declines continue in 2012.

January Game Sales Down 5%

It may be 3D, but the sales line is still pointing down.

Some NPD figures for January are in, and after the boosted November and December numbers (thanks to Kinect and Move, primarily) the traditional console game business is back where it's been the past couple of years: the basement. Overall sales are down 5% over last year, with hardware down 8% and software down 5%... accessory sales were strong enough to make the overall decline only 5%.

Of course, NPD tries to polish up this news by referring to the sales they don't track (digital distribution, used games, subscriptions, mobile, in-game purchasing) and inferring that there may be positive news there. True enough, but that doesn't help the traditional publishers who aren't investing in those areas.

As more and more of the industry revenue heads off the radar, it will be interesting to see how these data-gathering firms respond. Are they trying to get private companies to disclose revenue numbers for various categories? I wish them luck in that. All of us would sure like to know more about sales numbers for games, especially the newer types where there's little sales history to draw on.