Microsoft & Nokia: Windows Phone 7 vs. Android vs. iOS

Now, it would be cool if they actually used this logo.

Two foundering giants have found each other and bonded in cross-cultural matrimony to create a serious competitor in the race for smartphone dominance. Nokia announced today that it's dropping its Symbian operating system over the next year or two, and going full speed ahead with Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 as its smartphone OS of choice. Nokia plans to have its first device out by the end of this year, with high volume in 2012.

The partnership makes a great deal of sense for both parties. Nokia's been watching its smartphone market share crumble, despite rather nifty hardware. They could never get their act together on software and interface and an ecosystem. Evidence of this was their efforts to get the N-Gage going, which was just kind of sad.

Meanwhile, Microsoft desperately needs Windows Phone 7 to get moving.

Microsoft's smartphone marketshare continued to decline in the 4th quarter, dropping to 8.4 percent in December (down from 9.9 percent in September). Since Windows Phone 7's debut in September, Microsoft confirmed on January 26 that they have now sold 2 million phones.. .to retailers, not customers. Which works out to around 500,000 a month. That may sound like a lot, but not in a world where iPhones are being sold at a rate of 500,000 every 4 days, and Android phones are selling 500,000 every 3 days or even less.

Microsoft has been successful at getting a storefront up and running, and selling some games at least. The most successful game is Fruit Ninja, which has sold in the high tens of thousands at $3 apiece. Microsoft has been trying to attract developers and has just announced a program to buy Windows Phone 7 handsets without contracts, so developers can get a device to work with. Oddly, though, their price is higher than what you can get the phone for sans contract from AT&T. Brilliant.

What does all this mean for game developers? A significant new market supported by a company that actually has experience working with game developers. Nokia will be selling Windows Phone 7 handsets around the world; they are the largest cellphone maker in the world, after all. Nokia will find ways to hit all the market segments they can. Microsoft will take over the Ovi store duties, so  you won't have to worry about that. You can expect some pretty powerful hardware from Nokia, and now it will have a slick interface and some interesting cross-platform links (hello, Xbox Live!).

Windows Phone 7, at the stroke of a pen, has been transformed from a nice idea into a real competitor. Sure, it'll be well behind at the start, but by 2012 it should be significant enough to be worthy of strong support (and there's always some advantages to early support... heck, Fruit Ninja has shown that already). Now we'll have a three-way race between iOS, Android, and Windows Phone 7. HP has a shot with WebOS, though they will need to line up some serious marketing and partnerships in order to get anywhere in a crowded field.

Which leaves poor old Blackberry to shrivel on the vine... unless maybe they get smart and partner up with someone... hello, HP? Have I got a deal for you...

Apple TV, Windows Phone 7 Sell A Million

Apple's bid for family room domination hasn't exactly set the world on fire, but it's not doing too badly either. This week will see the new Apple TV hit one million units sold, which is not too shabby. At this point the new Apple TV doesn't offer a whole lot besides Netflix viewing and buying iTunes content... but according to Apple, users are renting or purchasing over 400,000 TV episodes per day, and watching over 150,000 movies per day.

Windows 7 has a similar adoption pace; they've shipped over 1.5 million units to retailers. Which may not seem like much compared to recent iPhone or Android sales numbers, which are doing those kind of numbers in a week. But it's not bad for a brand-new phone operating system. Microsoft says they've lined up 18,000 developers so far, which means they'll be seeing a lot of apps at some point.

What I'm waiting for is when both of these devices have a major impact on gaming. Apple TV needs to throw the switch and start selling Apps... maybe start offering a version with more storage for that purpose, or allow the user to plug in more storage. The AirPlay introduction is so new the impact hasn't been felt yet, but it will be... you can play your iPhone or iPad games on your TV through Apple TV, and that can be amazing. Scrabble on the TV? Infinity Blade on your TV? This won't be as significant as actually downloading those apps to your Apple TV, but it's still cool.

Windows Phone 7 has Xbox Live integration, and it remains to be seen how far Microsoft carries that. I'd like to see more than just access to your account; let's see Apps cross over into your Xbox 360 space. Reduce the demands for putting games in the Xbox Live Arcade down to the level of Windows Phone 7, and watch the market explode. Will Microsoft do it? They'll have to deal with angry retailers, perhaps, but the potential is there.

It would be nice to see more than just an iPhone/Android competition in the mobile space; I'm hoping Windows Phone 7 and PalmOS can make it a lot more interesting. (Blackberry? Nokia? Well, I suppose they are still around... but their trajectory is in the opposite direction, and unless they do something dramatic they will cease to be smartphone contenders in the next year or so.)

It seems clear to me that smartphone adoption will continue at a blistering pace in 2011 and beyond. This will expand the market for games of all types, as well as for e-books and other digital content. Tablets will also grow rapidly, and the combination means that more and more people will have a computerlike device with them at all times. We're just seeing the beginning of how these devices will transform gaming and book reading. The marketing of games and books is also changing rapidly, and there's no standard path to success. All I can say for sure is that developers and authors need to pay a lot more attention to marketing, and build it into their plans even before they create their content.